My answers to Quiz 1 and 2

Quiz 1

Certainly not a crazy 9-15 letter bingo here – the question being what’s the best way to catch up on such a huge deficit. There is one bingo line open, and it is difficult to predict Cheah’s rack based on his previous move.

There are a few ways to tackle this. One is to keep an extremely good leave (e.g. EIRT) and hope that you draw good stuff, and that Cheah makes a mistake by not closing the last spot (not likely). It MAY be possible to catch up using score though that is even more unlikely given the tiles in the bag.

Quackle simulations advocate L9 FAI(N)/(E)F/(L)A/(L)I for 16. It doesn’t note that Cheah’s best move would probably be to block the only spot, leaving me with less chance of winning – it gives a winning percentage of around 26% to that move on a many-ply sim.

Other options from Quackle that simulate well besides FAIN include 10I TALI/(VEX)T for 20 and AIT/(SWAP)T for 15, but they are all unable to open a spot.

What actually happened:
I tried to open a spot with 7C AMI for 6 points (this has a 4.25% chance of winning according to simulations, definitely not what I’d expect from Quackle), and Cheah, as expected, blocked the more dangerous spot with F4 NOH (6), leaving 1 in the bag. I drew a very unhelpful IE from the bag, forcing me to fish one. I played L3 EE hoping to draw an N, R, S or blank (and also hoping that Cheah didn’t bingo out).

Alas, I drew the K and he outed with B2 YeSTERN/RAMI, taking my points for EFIIKRT.

Final board position:

(click to enlarge)

Another possibility that I considered was to play 2M ABA, opening a line and baiting him into closing it, while hopefully drawing an N, R, S or blank to bingo next turn. Possibly a higher chance of bingo from this.. but I didn’t play it as he’d probably play something long up there to hit the triple and deny me any chances of winning even with bingo.

Quiz 2

Another position where I need to catch up – however there’s no right answer for this as GH has to make a mistake. Best spread minimising move is M2 SNAR/(J)A/(LOVE)R (25) followed by 13G P(I)ET/P(EA)/E(D) (22) – the only way he can win is to play I2 VIO(LA)S/(TENONER)S.

Quackle suggested that I5 (LA)S/(TENONER)S had a 100% winning percentage, but this is not true because that would only happen if GH played M2 ISOS for 25, giving me an out to the triple/ (P)ISOS – another instance of almost rubbish analysis by Quackle.

What actually happened:

I was low on time and spotted 13G P(I)ASTRE/P(EA)/A(D) for 38. I was quite sure he’d hook the S behind PIASTRE to play something like VIS, which would secure him the game for sure. So I played the N off (C12 NIDE for 5 points) and hoped he didn’t block the spot, or play something good enough to win (there were some other options that would win without blocking).

Turns out he did block the spot with J13 IS/(HERD)S for 15, leaving me with AEPRST. I miss his possible out play of I2 VIO(LA)S, choosing to play M2 SPAR/(J)A/(LOVE)R instead of higher scoring plays. He is unsure of (TENONER)S and plays 2J SOV(S) instead (9). I out with B7 (TO)TE (6) and lose by 18.

Final board position:

(click to enlarge)

Comments welcome.

One for all, All for one, Venturez’ 06

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