Camp’s over and no new replies, so I’ll just post up on the answers!
The very first thing that should be noted is that the scorelines are really very close. This move should have a dual emphasis on score and leave – you still don’t need a bingo to win. Z(A) wins this simulation easily because (1) leave of AEILRT bingos with a B, C, E, G, H, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, W on the board, which accounts for 29/46 of the tiles in the bag, (2) score catches up with Kian Boon, so even if you get a bad draw you can do something else and keep the margin close and (3) you don’t need to open lines for yourself, given the 3 main spots your bingo can play at (/IDE, to the R or Y).
In other words, any other fish is unnecessary and too risky.
I was pretty surprised no one guessed I(D), which is what I played. Again the same mentality applies, you now can bingo with 28/43 of the tiles in the bag. However Quackle simulations rate I(O) higher than I(D), which seems to be so because it takes out potential scoring opportunities with the TLS.
I simulated it one more time today (with Alpha’s suggestion of LIG), and it presented me with a different result:
I’d still go for the 1 extra point given that there really isn’t much risk of score to THAT TLS. Which one would you go with and why?
Another pretty interesting result here – why is BL(E)W better than B(O)WS (and etcetera etcetera)? I have two guesses about this: First the bag is lacking a decent vowel/consonant ratio, with 10 vowels in the bag out of 30, so throwing an extra consonant may make a difference. And maybe the EILNT leave is valued lower than EINT because of LN synergy (I’m also guessing that it isn’t that good compared to NT and etcetera), though I doubt any of these reasons would affect the simulation so much to put it below LENTI which keeps an unnecessary BW leave.
One for all, All for one, Venturez’ 06