Solution to Pre-Endgame Quiz + more on that game

Here’s the simulation result for this quiz:


(click to enlarge)

MIB simulates the best, but why? Let’s see…

1) COIF does not tell us much about Tony’s rack except that he kept decent tiles. So maybe we can expect a bingo.
2) Any bingo to the F (FREMITus, FoRETIMe, FoRMIaTE, FEMITeRs) would lose to FRENZIED, CONFEREE or DEFROZEN. If Tony plays CONFIDER we have a draw. That’s 4 racks – DEEFINR, EEEFNOR, DEEFNOR and DEFINOR.
3) MIB is quite obviously the strongest fish, but it loses to O8 FOREWIND, FOREFEND or FIREWEED. That’s 3 racks – DEINORW, DEEFNOR and DEEEIRW.
4) MInIsTER loses to any counter bingo which are DEFROZEN, FOREFEND, REOFFEND, NIFFERED, OFFENDER, EFFEIRED, REDEFINE and NEEDFIRE. That’s 3 racks – DEEFNOR, DEEFINR and DEEEFIR.

So let’s see – both MIB and MInIsTER lose to 3 racks, so why does MIB simulate best? This is probably because there are 3 Es in the bag which makes DEEFINR more probable than DEINORW. DEEEIRW and DEEEFIR have the same probability, and DEEFNOR is a repeat.

What actually happened? I played FREMITus, because we had overscored JOLL by 2 and I thought I’d win even with CONFIDER. I did not spot the possibilities of FRENZIED or DEFROZEN. Tony then tried EDGER/OVERBEARER*/SET/RAWN for a massive 42 points which I had to challenge – off the board it went.

The game link with some commentary is here. It is quite a good game with 7 bingos played, though I did miss simple bingos on one turn… I have a huge problem with double blanks šŸ™‚

And by the way… here’s how to play Scrabble.

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