Here’s the simulation result for this quiz:
MIB simulates the best, but why? Let’s see…
1) COIF does not tell us much about Tony’s rack except that he kept decent tiles. So maybe we can expect a bingo.
2) Any bingo to the F (FREMITus, FoRETIMe, FoRMIaTE, FEMITeRs) would lose to FRENZIED, CONFEREE or DEFROZEN. If Tony plays CONFIDER we have a draw. That’s 4 racks – DEEFINR, EEEFNOR, DEEFNOR and DEFINOR.
3) MIB is quite obviously the strongest fish, but it loses to O8 FOREWIND, FOREFEND or FIREWEED. That’s 3 racks – DEINORW, DEEFNOR and DEEEIRW.
4) MInIsTER loses to any counter bingo which are DEFROZEN, FOREFEND, REOFFEND, NIFFERED, OFFENDER, EFFEIRED, REDEFINE and NEEDFIRE. That’s 3 racks – DEEFNOR, DEEFINR and DEEEFIR.
So let’s see – both MIB and MInIsTER lose to 3 racks, so why does MIB simulate best? This is probably because there are 3 Es in the bag which makes DEEFINR more probable than DEINORW. DEEEIRW and DEEEFIR have the same probability, and DEEFNOR is a repeat.
What actually happened? I played FREMITus, because we had overscored JOLL by 2 and I thought I’d win even with CONFIDER. I did not spot the possibilities of FRENZIED or DEFROZEN. Tony then tried EDGER/OVERBEARER*/SET/RAWN for a massive 42 points which I had to challenge – off the board it went.
The game link with some commentary is here. It is quite a good game with 7 bingos played, though I did miss simple bingos on one turn… I have a huge problem with double blanks 🙂
And by the way… here’s how to play Scrabble.